FPM wins Metn by-election

While the by-election of a Sunni seat in Beirut (left vacant after the assassination of Walid Eido) was nearly uncontested, the race in the Northern Matn constituency (for the Maronite seat left vacant after the assassination of Pierre Gemayel) was much tighter.
Camille Khoury, the candidate of the Free Patriotic Movement also supported by local lord Michel Murr and the ethnic Armenian Dashnak/Tashnag party, narrowly won against former president and Phalangist leader Amine Gemayel (also the father of slain MP Pierre), who was supported by the pro-US March 14 coalition.

In my opinion, Khoury's victory does not modify in a substantial way the complex balance of power in the Lebanese political landscape. However, it is difficult to underestimate the weight of Gemayel's symbolic loss in his stronghold district. His defeat also leaves him out of the games for the presidential race which is supposed to take place in September.
The nervousness among the March 14 milieu is best certified by Amine Gemayel's latest rants, when he accused the Tashnag of cheating and called for the ballot in the predominantly ethnic Armenian area of Burj Hammoud to be cancelled. He also said that he had faired better "among Christians", somewhat implying that the Armenians were neither proper Lebanese nor true Christians, sparking obvious outrage in the Armenian community.

This round of by-elections leave the games for the presidential election substantially open, as neither March 14 nor the opposition can claim a clear electoral lead within the Christian (and specifically the Maronite) community, to which the president of the republic must belong to.