Lebanese minister assassinated in Beirut
Pierre Amin Gemayel, the acting minister of industry and son of former president Amin Gemayel, was assassinated in Beirut this afternoon. Self-styled "experts" and resident commentators have already joined the bandwagon of those who blame the Syrian government for this killing, even though every person with a spare dime of wisdom realizes it is a little bit too early to jump to any sort of conclusions.
I would like to note down a few personal considerations:
1. Pierre Amin Gemayel was a lesser figure in the Lebanese political landscape. He did not have the stature of either his late uncle (the former president Bashir Gemayel) or his late grandfather Pierre, the founder of the Kata'ib/Phalanges Libanaises, a party of clearly Fascist ideological affiliation that played a big role in Lebanese politics from the late 1930s all through the 1980s. The Phalanges have become insignificant and marginal in recent years, also because of the internal rift between their leader Karim Pakradouni (who eventually sided with the pro-Syrian bloc) and the so-called "correctionist base" who preferred an alliance with the right-wing Lebanese Forces. Pierre Amin Gemayel won a seat in the last parliamentary election only because of a last-minute deal in the Northern Metn constituency, where the rival list of Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement and Michel Murr obtained a landslide victory. He was brought into the Saniora-Hariri cabinet only because they needed to appoint a Maronite Christian personality who was neither impalatable (as most Lebanese Forces members) nor unrepresentative (as most of the politicians belonging to the Qornet Shahwan gathering).
2. This assassination, and the almost immediate pointing the finger of blame at Syria, happened on the same day when Syria and Iraq restored diplomatic relations after 26 years. It is no secret that British envoys were dispatched to Damascus during the last weeks in order to secure Syrian co-operation in a solution of the Iraqi quagmire. In other words, after demonising it as part of the "axis of evil" over the past five years, the UK and the US have asked Syria's help to sort out the mess. Why would you stage a disruptive assassination on the very same day when you get out of the outcast role you've been confined to over the last five years? Wouldn't it be foolish, even according to the parameters of the Syrian regime? In fact, naming the only country that benefits from this development is so obvious I don't even want to waste my time elaborating about it. (Hint: starts with 'I').
3. As As'ad Abu Khalil writes,
This was an attempt at discussing a revision of the power-sharing formula which operates within the inherently consociative Lebanese political system. Hezbollah, Amal and the FPM (uncorrectly depicted by Western mainstream media as pro-Syrian, therefore evil) insist on having a number of cabinet ministers that would allow them to act as a blocking minority, if need be. Hezbollah had promised to stage a series of massive protests after his requests for greater representation fell on deaf ears and most people were waiting for something to happen somewhere, at some point. The opposition camp is now left wrongfooted and in relative disarray: the funeral on Thursday will allow the ruling majority to take to the streets. Again, it is fair to ask who benefits from political stalemate and an increased polarization that makes a compromise less likely to reach.
5. It is interesting to remind that, in the past, Christian leaders (such as Tony Franjieh and Dany Chamoun) have been killed by other Christians, vying for political leadership over the Maronite community. It is also interesting to note that the political consequences of Gemayel's assassination could result in substantially thwarting Michel Aoun's bid for the presidency of the republic.
6. It is unlikely that the situation in Lebanon evolves in the short term into a full-fledged civil war, mainly because no political group or militia has the capability or the potential to overcome the other ones. However, Gemayel's assassination has unleashed widespread fear. I believe the country will remain in a state of chronic instability with clashes among groups of thugs and sporadic assassinations here and there.
Nothing new under the sun, someone could say.
I would like to note down a few personal considerations:
1. Pierre Amin Gemayel was a lesser figure in the Lebanese political landscape. He did not have the stature of either his late uncle (the former president Bashir Gemayel) or his late grandfather Pierre, the founder of the Kata'ib/Phalanges Libanaises, a party of clearly Fascist ideological affiliation that played a big role in Lebanese politics from the late 1930s all through the 1980s. The Phalanges have become insignificant and marginal in recent years, also because of the internal rift between their leader Karim Pakradouni (who eventually sided with the pro-Syrian bloc) and the so-called "correctionist base" who preferred an alliance with the right-wing Lebanese Forces. Pierre Amin Gemayel won a seat in the last parliamentary election only because of a last-minute deal in the Northern Metn constituency, where the rival list of Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement and Michel Murr obtained a landslide victory. He was brought into the Saniora-Hariri cabinet only because they needed to appoint a Maronite Christian personality who was neither impalatable (as most Lebanese Forces members) nor unrepresentative (as most of the politicians belonging to the Qornet Shahwan gathering).
2. This assassination, and the almost immediate pointing the finger of blame at Syria, happened on the same day when Syria and Iraq restored diplomatic relations after 26 years. It is no secret that British envoys were dispatched to Damascus during the last weeks in order to secure Syrian co-operation in a solution of the Iraqi quagmire. In other words, after demonising it as part of the "axis of evil" over the past five years, the UK and the US have asked Syria's help to sort out the mess. Why would you stage a disruptive assassination on the very same day when you get out of the outcast role you've been confined to over the last five years? Wouldn't it be foolish, even according to the parameters of the Syrian regime? In fact, naming the only country that benefits from this development is so obvious I don't even want to waste my time elaborating about it. (Hint: starts with 'I').
3. As As'ad Abu Khalil writes,
The UN Security Council today condemned the assassination of Pierre Gemayyel and considered it a "violation of Lebanon's sovereignty" (!?). The same Security Council did not condemn the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and did not consider it a violation of Lebanon's sovereignty.4. This assassination comes in a moment of political turmoil when the Saniora-Hariri cabinet is very shaky. Six Shi'a cabinet ministers resigned last week in protest about the call for the institution of an international court that would judge the alleged killers of former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri. The resignation, which leaves the cabinet grossly unrepresentative of the complex fabric of the Lebanese society, actually revolves about the failure of the "national dialogue" (al-hiwar al-watani) initiative.
This was an attempt at discussing a revision of the power-sharing formula which operates within the inherently consociative Lebanese political system. Hezbollah, Amal and the FPM (uncorrectly depicted by Western mainstream media as pro-Syrian, therefore evil) insist on having a number of cabinet ministers that would allow them to act as a blocking minority, if need be. Hezbollah had promised to stage a series of massive protests after his requests for greater representation fell on deaf ears and most people were waiting for something to happen somewhere, at some point. The opposition camp is now left wrongfooted and in relative disarray: the funeral on Thursday will allow the ruling majority to take to the streets. Again, it is fair to ask who benefits from political stalemate and an increased polarization that makes a compromise less likely to reach.
5. It is interesting to remind that, in the past, Christian leaders (such as Tony Franjieh and Dany Chamoun) have been killed by other Christians, vying for political leadership over the Maronite community. It is also interesting to note that the political consequences of Gemayel's assassination could result in substantially thwarting Michel Aoun's bid for the presidency of the republic.
6. It is unlikely that the situation in Lebanon evolves in the short term into a full-fledged civil war, mainly because no political group or militia has the capability or the potential to overcome the other ones. However, Gemayel's assassination has unleashed widespread fear. I believe the country will remain in a state of chronic instability with clashes among groups of thugs and sporadic assassinations here and there.
Nothing new under the sun, someone could say.
posted by Skylark at 7:14 PM
4 Comments:
Le tue considerazioni sono tutte condivisibili. Credo che siano ben pochi a capirci qualcosa di quello che sta accadendo in Libano.
E' tutto estremamente complesso.
Però ci sono alcune domande che vorrei porti. 1)Se non si tratta della Siria chi è secondo te il responsabile ?
2)Secondo te esistente un filo conduttore che porta da Hariri a Gemayel, passando per Hawi, Kassir e Tueni ?
3)Se i responsabili fossero da ricercarsi tra occidentali o forze progovernative per quale motivo Siniora ed i suoi alleati hanno chiesto l'estensione del tribunale internazionale anche per il caso Gemayel e prima per quello di Tueni ?
Ciao
Max81
Preciso ed acuto come sempre!
Ritengo che allo stadio attuale sia prematuro ascrivere delle responsabilità.
Mi limito a spiegare come il panorama sia assai più sfumato di quanto traspaia da certe semplificazioni giornalistiche che sono (più o meno intenzionalmente) funzionali a precisi interessi politici.
Sull'assenza di un filo rosso che leghi gli omicidi degli ultimi due anni, consiglio la lettura di Reasons for killing a politician in Lebanon (and elsewhere) dal blog Remarkz.
Un'altra lettura che suggerisco caldamente è To whomever killed Pierre Gemayel... da Anecdotes from a Banana Republic.
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